Signs that the Housing Recovery is Real

Signs that the Housing Recovery is Real

Construction starts rocketed to a new post-bubble high.Starts were at a 1,036,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate – up 7% month-over-month and 47% year-over-year – which is the highest level since June 2008. In March, 38% of new starts were in multi-unit buildings, compared with the typical level of 20%. Construction starts are now 55% of the way back to the normal level of 1.5 million from their low during the bust.

Existing home sales went down a bit. Sales fell 0.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.92 million homes. That’s a 10% increase over one year ago. Excluding distressed sales, conventional home sales were up 23% year-over-year in March. Also, inventory rose even on a seasonally adjusted basis for the second month in a row. Overall, existing home sales are 66% back to normal.

The delinquency + foreclosure rate dropped yet again. The share of mortgages in delinquency or foreclosure dropped to 9.96% in March, down from 10.18% in February and 10.98% in March 2012. The combined delinquency + foreclosure rate is 48% back to normal and at its lowest level since October 2008.

Averaging these three back-to-normal percentages together, the housing market is now 56% of the way back to normal, up from 54% in February and 43% six months ago in September. One year ago, the market was only 33% back to normal – so the last year has been a significant recovery. Furthermore, this month’s improvement is even better than it looks with the shift of sales from distressed to conventional and early signs that the inventory crunch may be easing, which will bring some relief to would-be homebuyers.


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Phone: 865-384-4661
Dated: April 27th 2013
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About Bob: Bob Wilbanks exemplifies leadership. His vision and ability to understand human nature has put him ...

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